Analysis of the market size of soda ash in 2025: The market size of soda ash in China will reach 80 billion yuan
Created on 2025.10.15
As reported by China Report Hall, the global soda ash trade exhibits distinct regional characteristics, with the United States, China, and Turkey being the world's major soda ash producers. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of soda ash. The following is an analysis of the 2025 soda ash market scale.
I. Global Market: Coexistence of Capacity Expansion and Demand Differentiation
The 2025-2030 China Soda Ash Industry Project Research and Market Prospect Forecast Evaluation Report points out that the global soda ash market presents the characteristics of "oligopolistic competition + regional differentiation". Solvay (Belgium) and Tata Chemicals (India) dominate the high-end market with high technical barriers. China National Salt Industry, Sanyou Chemical, Shandong Haihua, and Yuanxing Energy together account for over 40% of the market share. Among them, Yuanxing Energy, relying on its monopoly position in natural soda ash resources, maintains a gross profit margin 10-20 percentage points higher than the industry average.
II. Chinese Market: Intertwining of Overcapacity and Structural Optimization
In 2025, China's soda ash market scale will reach 80 billion yuan, accounting for 52% of the global market share. The demand share of emerging fields such as photovoltaic glass and new energy vehicles will increase from 15% in 2020 to 25% in 2025, driving the expansion of the market share of high-end soda ash products (e.g., low-iron soda ash, food-grade soda ash). China's "dual carbon" policy (carbon peaking and carbon neutrality) promotes the improvement of energy consumption standards in the industry. By 2025, the proportion of soda ash production capacity meeting or exceeding the energy efficiency benchmark level must reach 30%, forcing the withdrawal of high-cost production capacity.
III. Segmented Markets: Resonance Between Application Scenarios and Technological Upgrading
1. Segmentation by Production Process
Natural Soda Ash Method: Its production capacity will account for 19% in 2025, with a unit cost of 1,000-1,200 yuan/ton, much lower than that of the ammonia-soda method (1,500-1,700 yuan/ton) and the combined soda method (1,400-1,600 yuan/ton). Yuanxing Energy, relying on the monopoly position of Chagan Nuur Soda Mine in Inner Mongolia (with reserves of 1 billion tons, accounting for over 90% of China's total), maintains a gross profit margin 10-20 percentage points higher than the industry average. Ammonia-Soda Method: Its share will drop from 50% in 2022 to 30%. Due to environmental pressure (10 tons of waste residue per ton of soda ash) and cost disadvantages, some production units have been shut down. Combined Soda Method: Its share is 35%. It improves resource utilization through mother liquor recycling, but has high equipment investment costs, making it suitable for enterprises coupled with the synthetic ammonia process.
2. Segmentation by Application Field
Traditional Demand: Flat glass accounts for 46% of demand. Affected by real estate regulation, the construction area in the first 7 months of 2025 decreased by 9.2% year-on-year, leading to continuous demand contraction. Daily-use glass accounts for 10% of demand, with stable demand but a growth rate lower than the industry average. Emerging Demand: Photovoltaic glass accounts for 21% of demand. Its output reached 27.34 million tons in 2024, driving an additional 1.5 million tons of soda ash demand. However, overcapacity has led to a drop in operating rate to 61% and a price decline to 18 yuan/square meter, resulting in insufficient short-term driving force. New energy vehicles account for 8% of demand; the production of lithium carbonate has significantly boosted soda ash demand. In 2025, the output of new energy vehicles will reach 8.04 million units (a year-on-year increase of 32.9%), driving the demand for battery-grade soda ash. Lithium carbonate accounts for 5% of demand; as a core raw material for lithium batteries, its demand growth rate will exceed 20% in 2025, making it the product with the largest demand increment in the downstream of light soda ash.
IV. Future Trends: Greenization, Differentiation, Globalization
1. Optimization of Production Capacity Structure
By 2025, the share of ammonia-soda method production capacity will drop to 30%. High-cost enterprises will continue to exit the market, and industry concentration will further shift to leading enterprises. New production capacity must be realized through the elimination of backward capacity; a total of 2 million tons of capacity is planned to be phased out in 2025 to optimize the supply structure.
2. Upgrading of Demand Structure
Affected by real estate regulation, the demand for flat glass may decrease slightly in 2025; the demand for automotive glass will grow by 5%, providing partial support. Photovoltaic glass has great long-term demand growth potential, with the global new installed capacity of photovoltaics maintaining a growth rate of over 15% in 2025. The lightweight trend of new energy vehicles will drive the application of aluminum alloy materials, indirectly boosting the demand for soda ash.
3. Policies and Market Mechanisms
As indicated in the soda ash market scale analysis, market-oriented tools such as carbon emission rights trading and environmental protection taxes will force enterprises to reduce emissions. By 2025, the carbon emission intensity of the soda ash industry must be reduced to below 8 tons of CO₂ per ton of soda ash. Soda ash futures provide a risk hedging tool for the industry; during the sharp price decline in 2024, some enterprises locked in profits through hedging.
4. Global Layout
Taking Southeast Asia as a breakthrough, enterprises will avoid tariff barriers through technical licensing and overseas factory construction. For example, Yuanxing Energy has built a soda ash blending plant in Vietnam. Joint R&D centers have been established with institutions such as the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) to accelerate the R&D of enzymes, reduce the production cost of cellulosic ethanol, and expand the international market. In conclusion, against the backdrop of sustained global economic development, with the market's increasing preference for the new energy sector, the total demand for soda ash shows a year-on-year growth trend. Among them, regions such as India, the Middle East, Africa, and South America are witnessing continuous development and improvement of their industrial structures, leading to a rapid growth rate in soda ash demand.
Disclaimer: The article contains content and pictures from the Internet, WeChat public accounts and other public channels. We maintain a neutral attitude towards the article, for reference and communication only. The copyright of the reprinted manuscript belongs to the original author and unit. If there is an infringement, please contact us to delete it.
Contact
Leave your information and we will contact you.
WhatsApp