Soda Ash Market Competition Analysis 2025: Overcapacity, Structural Optimization, and Price Restructuring
Created on 2025.11.19
China Report Hall News reports that China's soda ash industry is undergoing profound changes. The contradiction between continuous expansion of production capacity and slowing demand growth is becoming increasingly prominent, leading to price declines, profit compression, and accelerated reshaping of the industry's competitive landscape. The production structure is tilting toward low-cost processes such as natural soda ash methods, while traditional downstream sectors face pressure, and emerging sectors provide growth momentum. High inventory has become the core factor suppressing market prices, and the divergence in corporate profitability is intensifying.
I. Analysis of Soda Ash Production Capacity Competition: Coexistence of Total Overcapacity and Structural Optimization.
The "2025-2030 China Soda Ash Industry Project Research and Market Prospect Forecast Assessment Report" released by China Report Hall points out that soda ash production capacity continues to grow, but the growth rate is slowing down. In 2023, soda ash production capacity exceeded 40 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 19.5%. In 2024, production capacity reached 43.45 million tons, an increase of approximately 3.45 million tons compared to 2023. The projected production capacity in 2025 is approximately 41.3 million tons, with a planned additional capacity of about 2.2-3 million tons, representing a growth rate of approximately 5.6%-7%. The second phase of the Alxa Natural Soda Project by Boyuan Group is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2025, when the total production capacity will reach 9.6 million tons. In June 2025, China Salt Chemical won the mining rights for Daqintala Natural Soda in Inner Mongolia, which will add 5 million tons of soda ash production capacity.
The soda ash production capacity structure has undergone significant changes, with the natural alkali method's share rising rapidly. In 2022, the natural alkali method accounted for only 5% of production capacity, which increased to 17% by 2024 and further reached 19% by August 2025. The industry's capacity utilization rate has declined, with the soda ash sector achieving 85.01% utilization in the first half of 2025, down 2.43 percentage points year-on-year. It is projected that the ammonia-soda process will maintain an average utilization rate of around 75% in 2025. The combined soda process is expected to see an average 3 percentage point decline in capacity utilization, impacting soda ash production by approximately 660,000 tons. Meanwhile, the ammonia-soda process is projected to experience a 9 percentage point decrease in utilization, affecting production by about 1.35 million tons.
II. Soda Ash Supply-Demand Competition Analysis: Production Adjustment and Export Growth
The growth momentum of soda ash production has slowed. In 2024, soda ash production reached 38.186 million tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.87%. In the first half of 2025, production stood at 18.5027 million tons, down 0.35% year-on-year; from January to August, production reached 26.254 million tons, up 3.4% year-on-year. Annual production is projected to hover around 38 million tons. Monthly data shows April 2025 recorded 3.1914 million tons, up 3.70% year-on-year, while August saw 3.281 million tons, marking a 3.8% increase.
The soda ash import-export landscape has undergone a significant transformation. In 2024, imports totaled 990,000 tons while exports reached 1.21 million tons. Projections for 2025 indicate imports will drop to 250,000 tons, with exports surging to 1.99 million tons. During the first half of 2025, imports declined sharply to approximately 18,500 tons year-on-year, while exports skyrocketed by 126.54% to 1.0156 million tons. Notably, March 2025 saw soda ash exports hit a five-year peak of 194,300 tons.
ⅢSoda Ash Demand Competition Analysis: Traditional Decline and Emerging Growth The downstream demand structure of soda ash has undergone changes.
In 2024, the demand for heavy soda ash reached approximately 19.05 million tons, representing a 7.63% year-on-year increase, while light soda ash demand stood at around 15 million tons with a growth rate of about 8.23%. The production of lithium carbonate increased by 360,000 tons. Based on the apparent consumption volume of 35.96 million tons, the downstream consumption structure shows: flat glass accounts for 46%, photovoltaic glass for 21%, and daily-use glass for 12%.
The 2025 soda ash demand forecast reveals divergent trends. Heavy soda ash demand is projected to decline by approximately 900,000 tons, primarily due to reduced float glass and photovoltaic glass production, while light soda ash demand is expected to increase by about 500,000 tons. Specifically, float glass production is forecast to decrease by 1.9 million tons to 52.56 million tons, with soda ash consumption dropping by 380,000 tons. Photovoltaic glass production is projected to decline by 2.7 million tons to 26.23 million tons, accompanied by a reduction of approximately 540,000 tons in soda ash consumption. The daily melting capacity of float glass production is estimated to range between 157,000 and 168,000 tons per day, averaging 164,000 tons daily. Float glass output in the first half of the year reached 28.409 million tons, marking a 9.72% year-on-year decrease. The average capacity utilization rate for photovoltaic glass in the first half of the year stood at 72.32%, representing a 20.47% year-on-year decline.
ⅣSoda Ash Price Competition Analysis: Cost Restructuring and Profit Differentiation Soda ash prices have undergone significant adjustments.
In October 2021, the peak price for heavy soda ash reached 3,681 yuan/ton. In 2024, spot prices fell by nearly 47% annually, while futures prices declined by approximately 28%, with industry profits turning negative for the first time in September. For 2025, spot prices for heavy soda ash are projected to range between 1,250-1,750 yuan/ton, with an annual price center of 1,400-1,600 yuan/ton. The main futures contract is forecasted to trade between 1,200-1,850 yuan/ton. In August 2025, prices for heavy soda ash were 1,335-1,349 yuan/ton, and light soda ash was 1,213-1,257 yuan/ton. The average soda ash price for the first seven months of 2025 was 1,369.04 yuan/ton.
The cost structures of soda ash production show significant variations. In 2024, the natural soda process cost 1,000-1,200 yuan/ton, the combined soda process 1,400-1,600 yuan/ton, and the ammonia-soda process 1,500-1,700 yuan/ton. For 2025, the ammonia-soda process is projected to fluctuate around 1,600 yuan/ton, while the combined soda process is expected to hover around 1,300 yuan/ton. By July 2025, the soda ash industry fell into losses again, with ammonia-soda process enterprises reporting a loss of-52 yuan/ton and combined soda process enterprises achieving a profit of 259 yuan/ton. The cash cost of heavy soda in Shanxi's main production area is approximately 1,350 yuan/ton.
The soda ash industry is transitioning from scale expansion to quality enhancement, facing multiple challenges including overcapacity, price declines, and shrinking profits. The industry's production capacity structure continues to adjust, with new capacities primarily adopting natural soda process and combined soda process, while the ammonia-soda process's share declines. Technological evolution shifts from traditional processes to green intelligent manufacturing, with the natural soda process gaining prominence through its zero-emission and low-energy advantages. Market demand shifts from traditional drivers to dual-wheel parallelism, with traditional float glass facing pressure and the rapid development of photovoltaic glass and new energy vehicle industries injecting new momentum into the soda ash market. The industry is entering an era of technological premium, where enterprises must build core competitiveness through technological innovation, scenario-specific expertise, and overseas expansion to break through market barriers.
Disclaimer: The article contains content and pictures from the Internet, WeChat public accounts and other public channels. We maintain a neutral attitude towards the article, for reference and communication only. The copyright of the reprinted manuscript belongs to the original author and unit. If there is an infringement, please contact us to delete it.
Contact
Leave your information and we will contact you.
WhatsApp