Price surge is coming! Must-read for chemical raw materials export in 2026: market analysis and order guide
Created on 03.13
As 2026 begins, China's chemical raw materials market is experiencing a robust recovery, with prices of most commodities continuing to climb, completely reversing the downward trend that had persisted for nearly four years. For export suppliers of chemical raw materials, this round of price increases is not a short-term speculation but rather the result of a convergence of multiple factors including supply-demand dynamics, cost pressures, and policy adjustments. While it presents opportunities for profitable order-taking, it also carries risks of price volatility. Drawing on authoritative data sources such as the Tonghuashun Financial Database, Xinhua Index, and industry research reports, this article focuses on export-related market trends to provide export suppliers with insights into the logic behind price hikes and actionable strategies for seizing market opportunities.
I. Core of the Market: Price Increase Covering a Wide Range, Export Benefits Highlight
Since 2026, the chemical raw materials market has exhibited a "comprehensive rise with structural divergence" trend, with core indices and export-related commodities performing exceptionally well. According to Tonghuashun data, the Chemical Raw Materials Index (CI005192) climbed from 2,072.77 points on February 12 to 2,283.91 points on March 12, marking a 10.18% monthly increase. The index has accelerated its upward momentum since March, posting a 2.68% gain over the past 10 trading days.
The Xinhua Index data shows that as of March 12, the chemical industry's valuation index stood at 1,052.24 points, up 4.73% from the previous trading day, significantly outperforming the oil and gas sector. Among export-oriented commodities, titanium dioxide, ethylene, and methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) saw notable price increases. Notably, titanium dioxide's international market price rose by $100 per ton, while MEK, which accounts for 58% of exports, has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, creating profit opportunities for exporters. Statistics indicate that in January-February 2026,60% of chemical products experienced month-on-month price increases, with resource-based and basic chemical products showing the strongest price hikes, aligning with export demand.
II. The Root Cause of Price Increase: Four Resonances Supporting the Market Continuity
This round of price hikes is no accident. Four key factors have converged to create a strong and sustainable market momentum, closely tied to export suppliers.
The core issue lies in the rigid contraction of supply. Domestically, seven government agencies including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) have adopted an anti-internal competition policy, phasing out over 12 million tons of outdated chemical production capacity. From 2026 to 2027, new capacity for mainstream chemical products will drop by 40%. Internationally, Europe has shut down 4.5 million tons of annual ethylene production capacity, while Japanese and South Korean firms have scaled back output, widening the global supply gap and boosting domestic chemical raw material exports.
A dual cost support mechanism. The geopolitical tensions in Iran have driven Brent crude oil prices into the $60-70 per barrel range, pushing up prices of key feedstocks like ethylene and methanol, with cost pressures directly impacting end consumers. Meanwhile, scarce resources such as phosphate rock have seen a 15% price surge amid global geopolitical instability, compounded by rising shipping and environmental costs, forcing companies to raise prices and adjust export quotations accordingly.
The demand-side dual drivers are driving the market. The recovery of China's real estate and auto sectors has boosted demand for PVC and soda ash, while spring plowing preparations have stimulated phosphorus chemical exports. Meanwhile, low overseas inventories combined with export tax rebate policy adjustments have triggered a temporary export rush, leading to a significant increase in domestic chemical exports and further supporting price growth. On the policy front, the industry's efforts to eliminate outdated capacity and align with the "dual carbon" goals are propelling high-quality development, enhancing the competitiveness of export products.
III. Suggestions for Export Suppliers: Seize Opportunities and Control Risks
For chemical raw material exporters, the current price hike presents both opportunities and challenges, requiring strategic responses in two key areas.
IV. First, strategically identify optimal order windows. With the current price surge continuing, prioritize long-term clients to secure existing pricing. Focus on export-oriented commodities like titanium dioxide, methyl ethyl ketone, and propylene oxide—these high-demand products with stable price increases can help expand export shares. However, note that new production capacities in markets like India may soon come online, potentially impacting export volumes. Proactively develop alternative markets to mitigate this risk.
On the other hand, it is crucial to strictly manage price fluctuation risks. Given the potential for raw material prices to rise, it is advisable to lock in long-term supply prices with upstream manufacturers to prevent cost increases from squeezing profits. When quoting prices, specify the validity period (ideally 7 days) and include price adjustment clauses to address volatility caused by international oil prices and geopolitical tensions. Additionally, monitor adjustments to export tax rebate policies, plan inventory preparation and customs clearance in advance, and seize short-term export opportunities.
In conclusion, the upward trend in chemical raw material prices in 2026 is expected to persist. Export suppliers should closely monitor market trends and rely on authoritative data to assess the outlook. They must capitalize on the profit opportunities arising from price increases while implementing effective risk management strategies to ensure stable growth amid market volatility.
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